Here is Part 2 of the guest essay by Zeus Y. There no longer seems to be a rational alignment between economic cost and value. This means questioning so-called conventional wisdom and critically considering whether or not to own property or even to go to college. Here are some examples: • In my own life, I owned a Florida vacant lot that would normally (and did actually significantly appreciate) in value, but the...
Read More »FX Daily, October 25: Germany IFO, Dollar Going Nowhere
EUR/CHF The SNB might have been behind the jump from 1.08 towards 1.823 in the last two days. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 25 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound had started the week looking more upbeat against the Swiss Franc but soon came under pressure just before Bank of England Governor Mark Carney met with a House of Lords committee about...
Read More »Seven Things I Learned while Looking for Other Things
Summary: Mainland demand for HK shares has dried up this month. EMU growth may accelerate in Q4, while the collective deficit continues to fall. German fertility rate increased last year. Here is to the serendipity of learning: 1. Chinese buying of Hong Kong shares has dried up this month compared with the record equivalent of $8 bln in September. So far this month’s purchases are less than $1 bln. In...
Read More »50 Slides for Gold Bulls – The New Incrementum Chart Book
A Companion Update to this Year’s “In Gold We Trust” Report Our good friends Ronnie Stoeferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG have just published a new chart book, which recaps and updates charts originally shown in this year’s 10th anniversary edition of the “In Gold We Trust” report and provides an overview of recent developments relevant to the gold market. The chart book can be downloaded in PDF form via the...
Read More »FX Daily, October 24: Dollar Begins Mostly Slightly Lower, and Risk is On to Start the Week
Swiss Franc Sterling vs the Swiss Franc has remained close to its lowest level in history caused by the aftermath of the Brexit vote back in June and more recently the announcement that Article 50 will be triggered by March 2017. Confidence in Sterling exchange rates has plummeted recently and until we get some form of assurances as to how the talks may go with the European Union we could see Sterling fall even...
Read More »If You Can’t Touch It, You Don’t Own It
The pending Brexit has, not surprisingly, caused a shakeup in the investment world, particularly in the UK. Of particular note is that, recently, asset management firms in Britain began refusing their clients the right to cash out of their mutual funds. Of the 35 billion invested in such funds, just under £20 billion has been affected. For those readers who live in the UK, or are invested in UK mutual funds, this is...
Read More »Wile E. Coyote Gravity Lessons
See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Reassertion of Gravity Another week without much major price action, gold +$16 and silver +$0.12. At least if you look at the closing prices. However on Monday after New York market hours, there was quite a spike in silver. The close was $17.46. The price was up 10 cents by midnight in New York. By the morning before...
Read More »Two Sets of Solutions as the Status Quo Crumbles
We are about to start a painful learning process about what is “impossible” and what is inevitable. Two charts illustrate Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform: this chart of the S-Curve of financialization, leverage, debt, central planning, regulatory capture and globalization–that is, the engines of modern “growth”–depicts the inevitable stagnation and decline of these dynamics as overcapacity, debt...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement in the Week Ahead
Summary: Fitch cut Italy’s rating outlook to negative from stable, while DBRS left Portugal’s rating and outlook unchanged. Europe and Canada’s free trade negotiations broke down, but many seem to be making exaggerating the significance of the drama. Japan and Australia report inflation figures, and both are exceptions to the generalization that price pressures are rising in (most) high income countries....
Read More »Weekly Speculative Positions: Net Short CHF Position is Increasing
The net short Swiss Franc position against the dollar has risen to levels seen before the breakdown of the EUR/CHF floor. Short CHF has increased from short 9.4 K contracts to 16.4 K contracts. Before the end of the peg, in December 2014, speculators were short CHF by 20-25 K contracts. This big short position got repeated only once at the end of 2015, when the Fed was supposed to hike rates, but finally did not....
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