This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg, and it shows the performance of bank share indices of the major bourses. The time series are indexed to 100 at the start of this year. The green line, which is off about 6.6% this year is the MSCI US bank index. The yellow line is the MSCI European bank index. It is off 25% this year. The white line is the Topix bank shares. It is fallen 30% this year, even with...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: BOJ and FOMC Meetings Featured in the Last Week of July
Summary: FOMC statement will not likely close door on September hike, though economists are more inclined for a December move. There is great uncertainty surrounding the BOJ’s outlook. We suspect odds favor tweaking assets being purchased rather than cutting rates further or dramatically increasing JPY80 trillion balance sheet expansion. European bank stress test results due at the end of the week. Contrary to...
Read More »Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks
Summary Italian banks have done worse that European banks. Italian banks outperformed Germany banks from end of H1 12 through H1 15. US banks and financials more broadly have outperformed Europe. Italian banks were struggling before the UK referendum. The result drove down interest rate, which keeps margins under pressure. The prospects of weaker growth as a result of Brexit means that demand for credit...
Read More »