Tag Archives: EMU

Overview: Surging US yields helped send the dollar higher but wobbled the stock market yesterday. A fragile consolidative tone has emerged today for the foreign currencies. The greenback remains mostly within yesterday's ranges. All but a few emerging market currencies are trading with a firmer bias. Beijing's weaker dollar fix may have been the first protest of the yuan's weakness since the election. The highlight of the North American session is the US October...

Overview: Shortly after the North American markets closed, before any results were known, the market jumped back into the "Trump trade," which it had pared on Tuesday. The dollar and US interest rates soared. The euro is the hardest hit among the G10 currencies today, off about 1.6% and the Canadian dollar, the best performer with about a 0.5% loss. Emerging market currencies have also been sold. The worst performer is the Mexican peso, which is off about 2.7%,...

Overview: A consolidative tone is emerging in the foreign exchange market as the week's key events begin tomorrow:  UK budget, eurozone and US Q3 GDP, and the US ADP private sector jobs estimate, and quarterly refunding. Outside of the Norwegian krone, which is up nearly 0.5%, the other G10 currencies are largely +/- 0.1%. The yen, Swiss franc, and antipodeans are trading with a slightly heavier bias. Among emerging market currencies, most from the Asia Pacific...

Overview:  It is ironic that a few months ago, many wanted to sell the dollar because the Republican president and vice president candidates said they wanted a weaker dollar. With the election drawing near and the race very tight, there has been a surge in the betting markets of a Trump-Vance victory, and this has corresponded with the dollar's dramatic rise. US rates held on the lion's share of their gains despite the sharpest loss in the S&P 500 since early...

Business travel will prevent the updating of the blog in the coming days.  It resumes October 19 with the Week Ahead.  Overview:  The lack of details from China's fiscal briefing, the soft CPI (and deeper PPI deflation), and a smaller than expected trade surplus did not prevent Chinese equities from advancing (CSI 300 +1.9%). Industrial commodities, such as oil, copper, iron ore, are mixed. Among the G10 currencies, the Australian dollar often acts as the China...

Overview: We suspect the market overreacted to the US jobs data, which was tainted by the lowest "establishment" response in over two decades and seasonal adjustments were likely thrown off by Hurricane Helene and the 33k strike at Boeing. We think Fed officials, and more speak today, have confirmed that it was not the game changer than many market participants think, which was likely influenced by positioning. It did help facilitate the dollar's upside correction...

Overview: The stronger than expected US jobs report triggered a 20 bp jump in the US two-year yield and sent the greenback broadly higher. The market slashed the probability that the Fed would cut by 75 bp in Q4. There are now slightly less than 50 bp discounted in the Fed funds futures strip. US rates have continued to back up today, and both the two- and 10-year yields traded above 4% today. The greenback is mostly firmer, though the yen, Swiss franc, and...

Overview: The dollar enjoys a firmer tone today. The escalating conflict in the Middle East is keeping the market on edge. And then there is tomorrow's US employment report. Among the G10 currencies, sterling has been the hardest hit. It is off around 1% after Bank of England Governor Bailey seemed to signal that after pausing last month, the central bank may turn more aggressive here in Q4. Nearly all the emerging market currencies are lower. Global equities and...

Overview:  The US dollar is mostly little changed today. Comments from the new Japanese government and BOJ Governor Ueda reinforce the sense driven by the softness in the September Tokyo CPI and larger-than-expected decline in August industrial output that there is no urgency for another rate hike. The yen is the weakest of the G10 currencies today. The Norwegian krone leads the major currencies higher after underperforming yesterday. Outside of the yen and krone,...

Overview:   Japan will go to polls a little ahead of the US. And the US election still looks too close to call. Canada may be forced into snap elections if the Bloc Quebecois abandon's negotiating with the minority Liberal government as it has threatened to do at the end of the month. The UK's new Labour government is putting together its first budget to be delivered at the end of the month. Among the first tasks of the new French prime minister is submission of...