Overview: Japan will go to polls a little ahead of the US. And the US election still looks too close to call. Canada may be forced into snap elections if the Bloc Quebecois abandon's negotiating with the minority Liberal government as it has threatened to do at the end of the month. The UK's new Labour government is putting together its first budget to be delivered at the end of the month. Among the first tasks of the new French prime minister is submission of...
Read More »Mortgage Relief Lifts China’s CSI 300 by more than 8% Ahead of the Golden Week Holiday
Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed on the last trading day of Q3 24. The Australian dollar, the G10 proxy for China, is leading the major currencies higher and reached its best level since February 2023 (~$0.6940). The yen and Swiss franc continue to trade heavily and are off 0.2%-0.25%. The euro firm and traded above $1.12 for the fifth time since late August but has failed to settle above there once. The soft inflation readings have boosted the chances of...
Read More »China’s Politburo Validates and Extends Pivot while the US Dollar Sees Yesterday’s Gains Pared
Overview: After its recent losses were extended, the dollar reversed higher in North America yesterday. Technically, this looks to have ended the sharp drop over the last couple of weeks, but there has been no follow-through gains today and a consolidative tone emerged. G10 currencies are firmer today, led by the recovery in the Antipodeans. The Swiss National Bank delivered the expected 25 bp rate cut, but the Swiss franc is up about 0.25%. Emerging market...
Read More »Run on the Dollar Stalls after the Market Boosted Odds of another 50 bp Fed Cut
Overview: Weak US consumer confidence, especially regarding the labor market boosted speculation of another half-point Fed cut in November when the central bank meets again. This weighed on the dollar. Sterling and the Australian dollar rose to new 2 1/2-year highs. The PBOC followed up yesterday's package with a 30 bp cut in the one-year Medium-Term Lending rate. After extending its losses earlier today, the dollar has steadied and turned higher against most of the...
Read More »China Goes Big, and Market (Initially) Gives it the Benefit of the Doubt
Overview: News of China's multifaceted support measures have bolstered risk appetites today. The dollar is mostly softer and only the yen and Swiss franc among the G10 currencies have been unable to find traction against the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are also trading with a firmer bias. China's measures include measures to support the stock and housing markets. The seven-day repo rate was cut by 20 bp (to 1.50%) and reserve requirements were cut by...
Read More »The Market Discounts around a 40% Chance of not One but Two 50 bp Cuts in last Three FOMC Meetings of the Year Ahead of Jobs Report
Overview: The US jobs report is front and center. The market is going into the report with about a 40% chance of a 50 bp Fed rate cut later this month. The Dollar Index is trading lower for the third consecutive session. Helped by the fifth consecutive decline in US 10-year yields, the yen approached last month's high but without the turmoil seen in July and August. Still, equity markets are under pressure. Most large markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. Taiwan...
Read More »Disappointing US Data Followed by Better Japanese Wages and Stronger German Factory Orders Weigh on the Greenback
Overview: The one-two punch of the disappointing US job opening report and the downbeat Beige Book weighs on the US dollar, which is softer against all the G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar is a notable exception. Prime Minister Trudeau's minority Liberal Party lost key support and the Bank of Canada affirmed expectations for more rate cuts. Japan's wage growth was stronger than expected, underscoring the divergence of policy and the dollar was sold to almost...
Read More »Dollar Consolidates as Stocks Melt
Overview: The sharp losses in global equities are dominating today's market developments. Yesterday's 2.1% loss of the S&P 500 and 3.25% drop in the Nasdaq were the largest since carry-trade unwind climaxed on August 5. They have fallen more today and are poised to gap lower at the opening. Asia Pacific shares tumbled, led by Taiwan's 4.5% tumble and the Nikkei's 4.25% loss. It delivered Indian stocks its first loss in nearly three weeks. Europe's Stoxx 600 is...
Read More »The Dollar is Bid but Ueda Lends Support to the Yen
Overview: The dollar is bid as the upside correction that began last week continues today. The greenback is trading above last week's highs against most of the G10 currencies. The yen is the notable exception. Comments by BOJ Governor Ueda has reiterated his intention to raise rates further provided the economy continues to perform as the central bank expects. The dollar has unwound yesterday's gains against the yen and is lower than last week's close (~JPY146.15)....
Read More »USD is Trading Mostly Firmer, but Yen and Swiss Franc Show Resilience
Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer, though consolidating against most of the G10 currencies. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the strongest, while the Scandis and Antipodean currencies are the heaviest. Among emerging market currencies, a handful of Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan are higher, but central European currencies, the South African rand, and the Mexican peso are softer.The news stream is light but the threat of the escalation of the...
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