Tag Archives: China economic transition

Q3 growth figures were in line with our expectations and confirmed ongoing changes in the structure of the Chinese economy. Our forecast for Chinese GDP growth remains unchanged.Chinese GDP for Q3 2017 came in at Rmb21.2 trillion (USD3.2 trillion), growing by 6.8% y-o-y in real terms, slightly below the pace of expansion in the first half of the year (6.9%).Several points are worth highlighting.First, China’s economic transition is well underway. The tertiary sector, mainly services,...

A new development zone south of Beijing could turn out to be the most important domestic infrastructure project in China in the decade to come and lead to large-scale economic change.At the beginning of April, the Chinese government caught people by surprise by unveiling plans to create the Xiong’an New Area, a new development zone about 130 kilometres south of Beijing. According to the announcement, the first phase of development will cover an area of 100 square kilometres, with long-term...

Third-quarter data leads us to revise up our growth forecast for this year to 6.7%, but forecast for 2017 remains unchanged at 6.2%. The latest data releases confirm our view that the Chinese economy is stabilising for the moment and that growth is on track to meet the government’s target of 6.5%-7% in 2016. The strong Q3 GDP reading leads us to revise our full-year GDP forecast for China to 6.7% from our previous forecast of 6.5%.Recent Chinese data releases prompt several...