Tag Archives: 4.) Marc to Market

Overview: A consolidative tone is mostly the theme of the day. The revisions to the US CPI announced before the weekend add to the uncertainty and focus on tomorrow’s report. At the same time, investors watch ongoing air space activity that has led to a few objects being shot down over the US and Canadian airspace. Yet the fear of escalation seems too mild still, but China’s ability to secure a rapprochement and leave its “wolf diplomacy” behind is strained, even as...

After selling off sharply in the past four months, the dollar rebounded. Since the FOMC meeting on February 1, it has enjoyed one of the strongest bounces since it topped out in late September/early October. The incredible US jobs data, sharp bounce in the January services ISM, speculation of BOJ Governor Kuroda’s successor, and some easing of the euphoria over China’s re-opening have been notable drivers. The dramatic rise in the US two-year note illustrates the...

(I am on a business trip and did not intend to post any analysis today. However, there have been a number of unexpected developments that warrant some commentary. Thanks for bearing with me.) Japanese press reports that the BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya turned down the opportunity to become the next BOJ governor. Instead, next week, former BOJ board member Kazuo Ueda will be nominated. The market reacted dramatically, taking the yen sharply higher and sold JGBS....

Overview: The capital markets have shrugged off the more than 1% loss of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday and have jumped back into risk assets. The stocks and bonds have been bought and the dollar sold. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained more than 1% today. Japan was mixed and Taiwan and South Korean equites saw minor losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up over 1%. Nasdaq futures are up nearly 1.2% while the S&P 500 is lagging slightly. European bonds yields are...

Overview: The US dollar is mostly trading with a downside bias today against the G10 and most emerging market currencies. It had begun the week extending the gains spurred by the dramatic jump in nonfarm payrolls and the strong ISM services survey. Market expectations for the trajectory of Fed policy in the first part of this year converged with the Fed’s December dot plot. The market now leans toward two more quarter-point hikes this year. The bulk of the adjustment...

Overview:  After large moves yesterday, the capital markets ae quieter today. Stocks are mostly firmer, and the 10-year US yield is a little softer near 3.62%. Strong nominal wage increases in Japan and a hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia helped their respectively currencies recover, though remain within yesterday's ranges. The euro briefly traded below $1.07, and sterling has been sold through $1.20. That said, a consolidative tone is the main feature...

Overview: The honeymoon for risk assets that began the year ended with a bang at the end of last week with the monster US jobs report and the rebound in the service ISM. Disappointing news from several large US tech companies provided extra encouragement. The yen's weakness helped Japanese stocks today, but the other larger bourses in the Asia Pacific area were sold, with losses in Hong Kong, the CSI 300, South Korea, and Taiwan off more than 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600...

The new year began amid optimism among investors. Equities and bonds rallied in January, clawing back some losses from last year. The dollar traded heavily, falling against most G10 and emerging market currencies. However, after the February 1 FOMC meeting, the dollar's sell-off exhausted the near-term selling pressure. An upside correction may be seen in the first part of February. We see this as a countertrend move and expect dollar weakness to re-emerge. The...

Overview: The Lunar New Year holiday has shut many centers in Asia until the middle of the week, though China's mainland is on holiday all week. The signaling of a downshift in the pace of Fed tightening by some notable hawks helped lift risk appetites ahead of the weekend and saw the S&P 500 snap a four-day decline. Ahead of the weekend the NASDAQ posted its single biggest advance since last November. The downtrend line drawn of January 2022 highs in the...

There are several macro highlights in the week ahead, during which Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year celebration. The preliminary January purchasing managers surveys pose headline risk. However, the survey data, for example, had the US composite below the 50 boom/bust level every month in H2 22, which likely overstates the case, as the first look at Q4 22 US GDP will probably show. While some improvement is expected, composite PMI readings are...