Donald and the Dollar

No Country Can be Made Great by Devaluation

John Connally, President Nixon’s Secretary of the Treasury, once remarked to the consternation of Europe’s financial elites over America’s inflationary monetary policy, that the dollar “is our currency, but your problem.”  Times have certainly changed and it now appears that the dollar has become an American problem.

In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, the soon to be 45th President of the United States believes that the greenback’s strength – up some 25% against a broad basket of currencies since 2014 – is now “too strong,” “killing us,” and has hurt companies trying to compete overseas.*

Trump’s belief that the dollar is too strong also shows a distinct lack of historical understanding.  Every great nation and empire (which Trump promises to restore America to) had a sound monetary system.

It is no coincidence that the pound sterling was the world’s “reserve currency” at the time when the British Empire was at its height.  Debasement of it to finance Britain’s insane decision to enter World War I led, in large part, to the eventual loss of its empire.

If Trump truly seeks to restore American greatness at home and its prestige throughout the world, devaluation of the currency is not the way to go.

Victims and Beneficiaries

Nor does a weakened dollar benefit the middle class whom the president elect throughout the campaign has pledged to help. In fact, it has been the fall in the purchasing power of the dollar due to the inflationary policies of the Federal Reserve which have decimated the living standard of the middle class.

And, while the proposed Trumpian middle class tax cuts will help, just as important is a sound monetary system if Middle America is to become a creditor class once again.

Pensioners and retirees, another group that Trump has promised to help, would continue to see their financial condition decline under a policy to weaken the dollar. A fall in the purchasing power of money would devastate the income stream of pensions and social security payments.

While a weaker dollar policy would hurt the middle class, retirees, and savers, it would benefit those who are largely responsible for the continued economic doldrums of America – banksters and the government.  A weaker dollar would allow the government to continue to borrow and maintain its profligate spending.

Financial houses and bankers would receive credit at nearly zero cost, which would allow them to continue to blow bubbles in asset markets.  Export firms, too, would benefit  – at least for a while –  but would more than likely face retribution from foreign governments and central banks which would retaliate with their own devaluations, potentially sparking currency wars.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers

The shrinking dollar: since the establishment of the Federal Reserve, it has lost 96% of its value. Since that figure is based on the government’s own highly dubious price inflation statistics, the loss was probably even greater. Not to put too fine a point to it: this is not the way to get richer - Click to enlarge

Sound Money is the Only Solution

Talk of “currency manipulation,” “weakening the dollar,” “trade deals,” and the like do not address what lies at the heart of not only America, but the Western world’s economic problem – too much debt.

The reason why the West has been able to incur its current gargantuan level of debt is not because of a “weak” or a “strong” dollar, but because the dollar is a fiat currency not backed by any commodity.

A true gold standard, where each currency unit represents either gold or silver, provides monetary discipline which prevents politicians and bankers from incurring ruinous levels of debt.

Since money is the lifeblood of an economy, any hope that one can be turned around without a stable monetary order is, to say the least, delusional.  If president-elect Trump and his policy makers do not realize this, they will be severely disappointed in the years to come.

Total Credit Market Debt

Total US credit market debt (last update at year-end 2015: $63.5 trn.) – this is indeed the largest credit bubble in history. It was enabled by the adoption of a full-fledged fiat money standard after Nixon’s default on the Bretton Woods gold exchange clause - Click to enlarge