Tag Archives: Norges Bank

Overview:  The markets are calmer after yesterday's post-US election drama. A consolidative tone has emerged in the foreign exchange market, and the dollar is softer against all the G10 currencies, led the 1% gain in the Norwegian krone, after the central bank left rates on hold. Sweden's Riksbank delivered the expected half-point cut and the krona is up 0.5%. Japanese officials warned against excessive moves, and the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate almost 1%...

Overview: A nervous calm hangs over the markets as the US goes to the polls. The proximity of the presidential contest warns that the results may not been known as soon as people hope. Indeed, many fear the voting simply begins the next phase of the contest, with premature declarations of victory and disputes over votes. The dollar is in mostly narrow ranges today, but the Antipodeans and Scandis are the strongest, and the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on...

Overview: The capital markets have begun the week in subdued fashion. Japanese markets were closed for the Mountain Day celebration, and this week's key events, which include US and UK CPI, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and potentially its first rate cut. The uncertainty about the market positioning and the extent of the carry-trade may also be dampening activity. The yen and Swiss franc are the weakest of the G10 currencies today, off around 0.4%. The...

Overview: The US dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies today but the Norwegian krone. Norway’s central bank left policy on hold and warned that if the economy performs as expected, it does not anticipate a rate cut until next year. On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank surprised many with its second consecutive rate cut. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the major currencies, off about 0.70% against the dollar. The Bank of England is up next....

Commentary will resume with a 2024 outlook on December 29. Overview: The dollar is trading with a firmer bias today ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Standing pat for two meetings was framed as a pause, but given the decline in price pressures, being unchanged for a third meeting is understood as the end of the historically aggressive tightening cycle. Fed Chair Powell is expected to express greater confidence that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring...

Overview: The busy week of central bank meetings is off to a mostly slow start. The dollar is narrowly mixed in quiet turnover, except against the Japanese yen. Many participants seemed to exaggerate the risks of a BOJ move next week and dollar continued its recovery that began ahead of the weekend. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies appear to be aided by the firmer euro. They are resisting the dollar's advance seen against most other...

Overview: We suspect that if Martians read the FOMC statement, which was nearly identical to the September statement and listened to Chair Powell, they would conclude there was nothing new. Yet, the market habitually hears Powell as dovish and this has weighed on rates and the dollar, while lifting risk appetites. Follow-through selling of the greenback has dragged it lower against all the major currencies, with the Antipodean leading the way, and nearly all the...

Overview: The US dollar has come back bid after losing ground against most currencies as the markets reacted to the FOMC decision and press conference. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been tagged the hardest, illustrating the risk-off mood, and arguably the weakening growth prospects. Countries that peg their currencies to the dollar have hiked rates, as has the Philippines and Taiwan. The Swiss National Bank and Norway have also lifted policy rates by 50 bp and 25...

Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. The Fed is first on December 14, and the ECB, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank meet the following day. Before turning a thumbnail sketch of the central banks, let us look at the November US CPI, which will be reported as the Fed's two-day meeting gets underway on December 13. The terms of the debate have shifted. It is no longer about when US inflation will peak but how fast it will come down....

Overview: The Fed delivered the expected 75 bp rate hike, and although it says it will take into account the cumulative effect of past hikes and their lagged impact, the takeaway has been a hawkish message. Risk appetites have evaporated. The dollar is stronger, while stocks and bonds have been sold. Japan’s markets were spared due to the national holiday, but the other large markets in the area were sold, lead by the 3% decline in the Hang Seng. Europe’s Stoxx 600...