Overview: The most recent data showed that Japanese investors took advantage of the yen's strength last week to buy foreign bonds and stocks. The US weekly jobs claims to their lowest level in four weeks, suggesting that the slowdown in the labor market remains gradual. The sky is not falling. There is no emergency. With a 28% drop in Japanese bank shares in the first three sessions of the month, stress in Japan was acute, but Japanese official actions seemed to...
Read More »After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer
Overview: The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate was set at its highest since January. Favorable guidance by Nvidia is helping lift US index...
Read More »Heightened Speculation of a BOJ Move Tomorrow did not Stop the Nikkei from Rallying or Yen from Slipping
Overview: The US dollar is trading with a mostly softer bias against the G10 currencies. The notable exceptions are the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Ironically, speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike appears to have increased, while there is a risk that the Swiss National Bank cuts rates this week. The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the major currencies. The central bank meets later this week but is widely expected to stand pat. The continued rise in oil...
Read More »Who Changed: Powell or the Market?
Overview: A poor reception to the 30-year Treasury sale and Federal Reserve Powell pledged to raise rates again, if necessary, not exactly a new ground, but it spooked the doves--driving rates sharply higher and fueling a strong dollar recovery. There was a large five basis point tail on the bond sale. The eight-day rally in the S&P 500 and nine-day advance in the NASDAQ was snapped like dry kindling. The S&P 500 comes into today down on the week. The...
Read More »US Interest Rate Adjustment Post-Jobs is Over as the 2-Year Yield Backs Away from 4.50%
Overview: The capital markets have shrugged off the more than 1% loss of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday and have jumped back into risk assets. The stocks and bonds have been bought and the dollar sold. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained more than 1% today. Japan was mixed and Taiwan and South Korean equites saw minor losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up over 1%. Nasdaq futures are up nearly 1.2% while the S&P 500 is lagging slightly. European bonds yields are...
Read More »High Anxiety: China’s Covid and US Inflation
Overview: Anxiety is running high. Rather than ease its Covid restrictions, a surge in cases is seeing more areas in China come under restrictions. The US reports CPI and of the ten reports this year, seven of them have been stronger than expected. The turmoil in the crypto space has gotten noticed even by those not involved. Asia Pacific bourses fell, led by Hong Kong, and Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for a second day. US equity futures are slightly firmer. US and...
Read More »Fed Unleashes Animal Spirits
Overview: The Fed's hawkish pivot came a few weeks before yesterday's FOMC meeting, which confirmed more or less what the market had already largely anticipated. Buy the (dollar) on rumors (of tapering and more aggressive stance on rates) and sell the fact unfolded, and unleashed the risk-appetites which rippled through the capital markets. US stocks rallied yesterday, and the futures point to a gap higher opening today. Large Asia Pacific bourses, led by a 2%...
Read More »Markets Look for Direction, Currencies in Narrow Ranges
Overview: The global capital markets are subdued today as investors wrestle with the rising virus, the shifting stance of several central banks, and a more tense geopolitical backdrop. Equity markets are struggling today. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region, including Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, moved lower, and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 threatens to snap an eight-session advance. US futures are narrowly mixed. The US 10-year yield...
Read More »FX Daily, June 25: Tokyo Escapes Deflation, Leaving the Greenback Trapped between Two Expiring Options against the Yen
[unable to retrieve full-text content]New record highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ yesterday helped lift most Asia Pacific markets today. China and Hong Kong led the regional gains and were sufficient to lift the MSCI regional benchmark to halt a two-week drop.
Read More »FX Daily, June 24: Did the PBOC Signal it is Content with the Yuan’s Pullback?
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.06% to 1.0962 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Scandis are leading the major currencies, while the Russian ruble leads the central and eastern European currencies higher. Emerging market currencies mostly firmer, though the...
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